Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.7pts: 30¢ at window start → 27¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 28¢ (band 28¢–35¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 1.7× this market's 7-day norm, $12.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.2:1 ask, $4.7k/$14.9k within 10¢

Book 3.2:1 ask, $4.7k/$14.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 03 Aug 2026, 12:09 UTC: Band breach (lower): 30¢ → 28¢ (-2.0pts), confirmed over 62s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.28× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 27¢, drift +0.7pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 27¢, held +2.7ptspts
• Peak move: +2.8pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 27¢
• Graded from 46 snapshots