Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.2pts: 81¢ at window start → 84¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 81¢ (band 78¢–81¢)
  band from 169 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 2.4:1 ask, $16.6k/$40.7k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.5× this market's 7-day norm, $8.4k in 24h
  volume from the 06:35 UTC snapshot (no close reading)

Book 2.4:1 ask, $16.6k/$40.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 03 Aug 2026, 05:17 UTC: Band breach (upper): 81¢ → 81¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 160s
• 03 Aug 2026, 06:32 UTC: Sustained reprice: 81¢ → 84¢ (+3.3pts), confirmed over 155s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +30m: 81¢, held +0.6ptspts
• Peak move: +3.8pts
• Held 86% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 84¢
• Graded from 17 snapshots