OUTSIDE BAND
WINDOW OPEN: LIVE
Polymarket
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
Window 03 Aug 2026, 18:20 UTC → 03 Aug 2026, 19:50 UTC
Price at window start 97¢ → at trigger 98¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 04 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC
Live payload
- REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 97¢ at window start → 98¢ now
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 97¢ (band 73¢–97¢)
band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
- VOLUME 1.5× this market's 7-day norm, $39.6k in 24h
- BOOK Book 1.6:1 bid, $71.0k/$44.8k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.6k, 10.1× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 1,624 trades / 7d
Triggers (1)
- 03 Aug 2026, 18:20 UTC: Band breach (upper): 97¢ → 98¢ (+0.6pts), confirmed over 92s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.03× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time