REPRICED
WINDOW OPEN: LIVE
Polymarket
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
Window 03 Aug 2026, 23:06 UTC → 04 Aug 2026, 00:36 UTC
Price at window start 60¢ → at trigger 43¢
YES down · NO up
Live payload
- REPRICED Repriced -11.0pts: 60¢ at window start → 49¢ now
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $3.2k, 5.4× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 7,615 trades / 7d
DEPTH PENDING
Triggers (2)
- 03 Aug 2026, 23:06 UTC: Sustained reprice: 60¢ → 43¢ (-16.5pts), confirmed over 116s
- 03 Aug 2026, 23:14 UTC: Sustained reprice: 43¢ → 51¢ (+7.5pts), confirmed over 93s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time