OUTSIDE BAND WINDOW OPEN: LIVE Polymarket

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

Window 03 Aug 2026, 03:05 UTC → 03 Aug 2026, 04:35 UTC

Price at window start 56¢ → at trigger 57¢

YES up · NO down

Live payload

REPRICED Repriced +4.0pts: 56¢ at window start → 61¢ now
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 57¢ (band 9¢–57¢)
band from 158 hourly obs / 7.0d
UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $3.7k, 6.0× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 6,712 trades / 7d

DEPTH PENDING

03 Aug 2026, 03:05 UTC: Band breach (upper): 56¢ → 57¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 246s