US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 43¢ at window start → 42¢ at close
• BOOK Book 1.6:1 bid, $5.8k/$3.6k within 10¢
• VOLUME $24.9k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
  volume summed from the market's own trade tape

Book 1.6:1 bid, $5.8k/$3.6k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 03 Aug 2026, 19:04 UTC: Sustained reprice: 43¢ → 39¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.19× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 53 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 39¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 40¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 25% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 42¢
• Graded from 140 snapshots