US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +5.0pts: 37¢ at window start → 42¢ at close
• BOOK Book 3.6:1 bid, $14.1k/$3.9k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $853, 1.5× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,611 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.8× this market's 7-day norm, $79.9k in 24h

Book 3.6:1 bid, $14.1k/$3.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (4)

• 03 Aug 2026, 18:04 UTC: Sustained reprice: 37¢ → 42¢ (+5.0pts), confirmed over 96s
• 03 Aug 2026, 18:25 UTC: Sustained reprice: 42¢ → 47¢ (+5.5pts), confirmed over 29s
• 03 Aug 2026, 18:29 UTC: Band breach (upper): 47¢ → 46¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 60s
• 03 Aug 2026, 18:32 UTC: Sustained reprice: 46¢ → 42¢ (-4.5pts), confirmed over 27s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 97 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 42¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 44¢, held +7.0ptspts
• Peak move: +10.5pts
• Held 48% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 42¢
• Graded from 130 snapshots