US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.5pts: 41¢ at window start → 44¢ at close
• BOOK Book 7.6:1 bid, $9.3k/$1.2k within 10¢
  depth from the 01:02 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.1k, 3.7× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,757 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.8× this market's 7-day norm, $79.9k in 24h

DEPTH PENDING · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (3)

• 03 Aug 2026, 23:43 UTC: Sustained reprice: 41¢ → 45¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 252s
• 03 Aug 2026, 23:50 UTC: Sustained reprice: 45¢ → 40¢ (-5.5pts), confirmed over 90s
• 04 Aug 2026, 01:11 UTC: Sustained reprice: 40¢ → 44¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 67s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.15× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 67 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 45¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 41¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +4.5pts
• Held 78% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 44¢
• Graded from 41 snapshots