Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 13¢ at window start → 14¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 13¢ (band 6¢–13¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 ask, $63.0k/$70.2k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.4× this market's 7-day norm, $416.9k in 24h
  volume from the 00:59 UTC snapshot (no close reading)

Book 1.1:1 ask, $63.0k/$70.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 03 Aug 2026, 23:32 UTC: Band breach (upper): 13¢ → 14¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 31s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.16× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +30m: 14¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 14¢
• Graded from 40 snapshots