Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -6.0pts: 35¢ at window start → 28¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 30¢ (band 30¢–36¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 1.5× this market's 7-day norm, $14.2k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.8:1 ask, $2.3k/$6.5k within 10¢
  depth from the 09:42 UTC snapshot (no close reading)

DEPTH PENDING · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 03 Aug 2026, 08:19 UTC: Sustained reprice: 35¢ → 31¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 273s
• 03 Aug 2026, 08:48 UTC: Band breach (lower): 31¢ → 30¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 155s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.62× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 8 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 31¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 30¢, held +5.0ptspts
• Peak move: +6.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 28¢
• Graded from 27 snapshots