Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 21¢ at window start → 21¢ at close
• VOLUME 3.1× this market's 7-day norm, $2.5M in 24h
  volume from the 23:18 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• BOOK Book 2.1:1 bid, $535.9k/$256.8k within 10¢

Book 2.1:1 bid, $535.9k/$256.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 02 Aug 2026, 21:59 UTC: Band breach (lower): 21¢ → 20¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 282s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.2× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 20¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 20¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 21¢
• Graded from 16 snapshots