Window 02 Aug 2026, 03:30 UTC → 02 Aug 2026, 05:00 UTC
Price at window start 21¢ → at trigger 20¢ → at close 18¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Frozen payload
REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 21¢ at window start → 18¢ at close
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 20¢ (band 20¢–26¢) band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
VOLUME 3.4× this market's 7-day norm, $2.1M in 24h volume from the 04:51 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
BOOK Book 1.3:1 ask, $148.9k/$188.2k within 10¢
TIMING First reprice T+73m
UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $15.8k, 15.4× this market's typical big trade size baseline: 95th pct of 2,493 trades / 7d
WIRE Wire: @FirstSquawk T−73m, link confidence 90%: "Trump on Truth Social
The U.S.A. is locked and loaded and ready
to go against the Islamic Republic of Iran, at
levels…"
Book 1.3:1 ask, $148.9k/$188.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (2)
02 Aug 2026, 03:30 UTC: Band breach (lower): 21¢ → 20¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s
02 Aug 2026, 03:56 UTC: Sustained reprice: 20¢ → 17¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 31s
Context
Opening move ≈ 0.2× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
168 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
+2m after alert: 20¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction