Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 80¢ at window start → 82¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 80¢ (band 77¢–80¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.4× this market's 7-day norm, $16.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.9:1 bid, $25.8k/$13.4k within 10¢
• TIMING First reprice T+397m
• WIRE Wire: @FirstSquawk T−351m, link confidence 75%: "Armenia's government resigned Sunday, as required by the Constitution, after the newly elected parliament held its fi…"
• WIRE Wire: @FirstSquawk T−397m, link confidence 75%: "Major OPEC+ nations have agreed in principle to another token increase in their production quotas for September, a mo…"

Book 1.9:1 bid, $25.8k/$13.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 02 Aug 2026, 15:12 UTC: Band breach (upper): 80¢ → 82¢ (+2.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.67× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 7 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 83¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 83¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 67% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 82¢
• Graded from 140 snapshots