OUTSIDE BAND
WINDOW OPEN: LIVE
Kalshi
Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
Window 02 Aug 2026, 14:29 UTC → 02 Aug 2026, 15:59 UTC
Price at window start 55¢ → at trigger 54¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 01 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC
Live payload
- REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 55¢ at window start → 54¢ now
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 54¢ (band 54¢–57¢)
band from 165 hourly obs / 6.9d
- BOOK Book 1.4:1 ask, $51.4k/$72.5k within 10¢
- VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $4.1k in 24h
Triggers (1)
- 02 Aug 2026, 14:29 UTC: Band breach (lower): 55¢ → 54¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 92s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time