OUTSIDE BAND
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
Window 02 Aug 2026, 21:55 UTC → 02 Aug 2026, 23:25 UTC
Price at window start 51¢ → at trigger 58¢ → at close 54¢
YES up · NO down
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +3.0pts: 51¢ at window start → 54¢ at close
- BOOK Book 4.3:1 bid, $23.2k/$5.4k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $3.2k, 5.3× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 6,407 trades / 7d
- VOLUME $226.7k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
volume summed from the market's own trade tape
Book 4.3:1 bid, $23.2k/$5.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (1)
- 02 Aug 2026, 21:55 UTC: Band breach (upper): 51¢ → 58¢ (+7.5pts), confirmed over 306s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.16× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 64 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 57¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 53¢, held +2.0ptspts
- Peak move: +9.0pts
- Held 33% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: yes
- Price at close: 54¢
- Graded from 16 snapshots