REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
Window 02 Aug 2026, 05:21 UTC → 02 Aug 2026, 06:51 UTC
Price at window start 53¢ → at trigger 49¢ → at close 47¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 31 Aug 2026, 23:59 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced -6.0pts: 53¢ at window start → 47¢ at close
- BOOK Book 1.5:1 bid, $3.4k/$2.3k within 10¢
- VOLUME $23.0k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
volume summed from the market's own trade tape
Book 1.5:1 bid, $3.4k/$2.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (1)
- 02 Aug 2026, 05:21 UTC: Sustained reprice: 53¢ → 49¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 91s
Context artifact
@FirstSquawk · X: posted 1h 48m before the break
Trump Calls Off Planned Attack on Iran, Citing Diplomatic Progress - WSJ
View the post
Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.16× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 16 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 49¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 47¢, held +6.0ptspts
- Peak move: +6.5pts
- Held 92% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
- Gave back half within 60m: no
- Price at close: 47¢
- Graded from 42 snapshots