US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -5.5pts: 49¢ at window start → 43¢ at close
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 bid, $4.2k/$3.7k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.0k, 1.7× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 876 trades / 7d
• VOLUME $30.4k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
  volume summed from the market's own trade tape

Book 1.1:1 bid, $4.2k/$3.7k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 02 Aug 2026, 12:03 UTC: Sustained reprice: 49¢ → 44¢ (-4.5pts), confirmed over 308s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.21× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 10 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 45¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 44¢, held +5.0ptspts
• Peak move: +6.0pts
• Held 92% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 43¢
• Graded from 48 snapshots