US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +7.5pts: 41¢ at window start → 48¢ at close
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 bid, $6.0k/$4.5k within 10¢
  depth from the 21:50 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.4k, 2.3× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 926 trades / 7d
• VOLUME $36.6k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
  volume summed from the market's own trade tape

DEPTH PENDING · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 02 Aug 2026, 20:46 UTC: Sustained reprice: 41¢ → 38¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 91s
• 02 Aug 2026, 21:55 UTC: Sustained reprice: 38¢ → 46¢ (+8.0pts), confirmed over 306s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.14× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 69 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 38¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 39¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 48¢
• Graded from 48 snapshots