REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
Window 02 Aug 2026, 07:53 UTC → 02 Aug 2026, 09:23 UTC
Price at window start 49¢ → at trigger 52¢ → at close 53¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 31 Aug 2026, 23:59 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +4.0pts: 49¢ at window start → 53¢ at close
- BOOK Book 1.9:1 bid, $2.7k/$1.4k within 10¢
- TIMING First reprice T+214m
- WIRE Wire: @FirstSquawk T−214m, link confidence 75%: "US tells Americans to leave Middle East, warns Iran 'unpredictable' amid rising tensions - ET"
- VOLUME $28.2k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
volume summed from the market's own trade tape
Book 1.9:1 bid, $2.7k/$1.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (1)
- 02 Aug 2026, 07:53 UTC: Sustained reprice: 49¢ → 52¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.16× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 18 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 52¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 52¢, held +3.0ptspts
- Peak move: +5.0pts
- Held 80% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: no
- Price at close: 53¢
- Graded from 63 snapshots