OUTSIDE BAND
WINDOW OPEN: LIVE
Polymarket
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Window 02 Aug 2026, 18:39 UTC → 02 Aug 2026, 20:09 UTC
Price at window start 25¢ → at trigger 23¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Live payload
- REPRICED Repriced -2.5pts: 25¢ at window start → 22¢ now
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 24¢ (band 24¢–31¢)
band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
- BOOK Book 2.0:1 ask, $5.9k/$12.0k within 10¢
- VOLUME 1.2× this market's 7-day norm, $11.3k in 24h
Triggers (1)
- 02 Aug 2026, 18:39 UTC: Band breach (lower): 25¢ → 23¢ (-2.0pts), confirmed over 215s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.28× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time