OUTSIDE BAND
WINDOW OPEN: LIVE
Polymarket
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
Window 02 Aug 2026, 03:24 UTC → 02 Aug 2026, 04:54 UTC
Price at window start 32¢ → at trigger 33¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 30 Sept 2026, 23:59 UTC
Live payload
- REPRICED Repriced +2.5pts: 32¢ at window start → 34¢ now
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 32¢ (band 28¢–32¢)
band from 169 hourly obs / 7.0d
- VOLUME 11.3× this market's 7-day norm, $94.2k in 24h
- BOOK Book 1.4:1 ask, $10.6k/$14.9k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.4k, 1.4× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 850 trades / 7d
Triggers (1)
- 02 Aug 2026, 03:24 UTC: Band breach (upper): 32¢ → 33¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 106s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.25× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time