US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +6.0pts: 40¢ at window start → 46¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 43¢ (band 15¢–43¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 3.2× this market's 7-day norm, $139.1k in 24h
• BOOK Book 16.3:1 bid, $10.9k/$673 within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.4k, 3.4× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 867 trades / 7d

Book 16.3:1 bid, $10.9k/$673 within 10¢ · spread 3.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 02 Aug 2026, 07:17 UTC: Band breach (upper): 40¢ → 43¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 83s
• 02 Aug 2026, 07:41 UTC: Sustained reprice: 43¢ → 48¢ (+5.0pts), confirmed over 60s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.13× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 47 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 43¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 47¢, held +7.0ptspts
• Peak move: +11.0pts
• Held 55% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 46¢
• Graded from 60 snapshots