US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 41¢ at window start → 40¢ at close
• VOLUME 3.4× this market's 7-day norm, $151.1k in 24h
  volume from the 13:53 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• BOOK Book 1.8:1 bid, $5.3k/$2.9k within 10¢

Book 1.8:1 bid, $5.3k/$2.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 02 Aug 2026, 12:52 UTC: Band breach (upper): 41¢ → 45¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 54s
• 02 Aug 2026, 13:09 UTC: Sustained reprice: 45¢ → 41¢ (-4.5pts), confirmed over 233s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 34 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 45¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 41¢, held +0.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.5pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 40¢
• Graded from 107 snapshots