OUTSIDE BAND
WINDOW OPEN: LIVE
Polymarket
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
Window 02 Aug 2026, 17:23 UTC → 02 Aug 2026, 18:53 UTC
Price at window start 42¢ → at trigger 43¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 15 Aug 2026, 23:59 UTC
Live payload
- REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 42¢ at window start → 41¢ now
- BOOK Book 3.9:1 bid, $6.7k/$1.7k within 10¢
Triggers (1)
- 02 Aug 2026, 17:23 UTC: Band breach (upper): 42¢ → 43¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s
Context artifact
@FirstSquawk · X: posted 1h 46m before the break
U.S. Central Command: We diverted the course of 35 ships and disabled two vessels since the resumption of the blockade on Iranian ports
View the post
Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.04× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time