REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
Window 02 Aug 2026, 02:19 UTC → 02 Aug 2026, 03:49 UTC
Price at window start 19¢ → at trigger 36¢ → at close 38¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 15 Aug 2026, 23:59 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +19.0pts: 19¢ at window start → 38¢ at close
- VOLUME 2.4× this market's 7-day norm, $106.4k in 24h
- BOOK Book 2.1:1 bid, $12.8k/$6.2k within 10¢
depth from the 03:36 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.6k, 2.3× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 586 trades / 7d
DEPTH PENDING · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (2)
- 02 Aug 2026, 02:19 UTC: Sustained reprice: 19¢ → 36¢ (+17.0pts), confirmed over 240s
- 02 Aug 2026, 02:58 UTC: Sustained reprice: 36¢ → 40¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 92s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.63× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 83 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +30m: 37¢, held +18.0ptspts
- Peak move: +23.0pts
- Held 83% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
- Gave back half within 60m: no data
- Price at close: 38¢
- Graded from 40 snapshots