US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 37¢ at window start → 39¢ at close
• VOLUME 3.2× this market's 7-day norm, $139.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.8:1 bid, $13.1k/$3.4k within 10¢
  depth from the 06:02 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.2k, 1.7× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 773 trades / 7d

DEPTH PENDING · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (3)

• 02 Aug 2026, 04:36 UTC: Sustained reprice: 37¢ → 41¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 106s
• 02 Aug 2026, 04:45 UTC: Band breach (upper): 41¢ → 43¢ (+2.0pts), confirmed over 28s
• 02 Aug 2026, 05:39 UTC: Sustained reprice: 43¢ → 39¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 231s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.15× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 60 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 41¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 42¢, held +5.0ptspts
• Peak move: +6.0pts
• Held 33% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 39¢
• Graded from 43 snapshots