OUTSIDE BAND WINDOW OPEN: LIVE Polymarket

Israel closes its airspace by August 31?

Window 02 Aug 2026, 21:40 UTC → 02 Aug 2026, 23:10 UTC

Price at window start 23¢ → at trigger 22¢

YES down · NO up

Live payload

REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts: 23¢ at window start → 21¢ now
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 22¢ (band 22¢–31¢)
band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $3.3k, 12.1× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 1,841 trades / 7d

DEPTH PENDING

02 Aug 2026, 21:40 UTC: Band breach (lower): 23¢ → 22¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 308s