Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 7¢ at window start → 6¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 6¢ (band 6¢–10¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 3.1:1 ask, $1.9k/$5.9k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.3× this market's 7-day norm, $49.5k in 24h

Book 3.1:1 ask, $1.9k/$5.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 02 Aug 2026, 12:23 UTC: Band breach (lower): 7¢ → 6¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 373s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.14× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 6¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 6¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 6¢
• Graded from 70 snapshots