OUTSIDE BAND
WINDOW OPEN: LIVE
Polymarket
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
Window 02 Aug 2026, 06:31 UTC → 02 Aug 2026, 08:01 UTC
Price at window start 7¢ → at trigger 6¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 31 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC
Live payload
- REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 7¢ at window start → 6¢ now
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 6¢ (band 6¢–10¢)
band from 169 hourly obs / 7.0d
- BOOK Book 2.2:1 ask, $2.8k/$6.3k within 10¢
- VOLUME 0.4× this market's 7-day norm, $65.8k in 24h
Triggers (1)
- 02 Aug 2026, 06:31 UTC: Band breach (lower): 7¢ → 6¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 61s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.14× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time