Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +8.0pts: 24¢ at window start → 32¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 26¢ (band 23¢–26¢)
  band from 169 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 16.7× this market's 7-day norm, $10.1k in 24h
  volume from the 01:20 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• BOOK Book 16.6:1 ask, $407/$6.8k within 10¢
  depth from the 01:20 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $165, 1.6× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 948 trades / 7d

DEPTH PENDING · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 01 Aug 2026, 23:51 UTC: Band breach (upper): 24¢ → 31¢ (+7.0pts), confirmed over 61s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 2.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 11 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 31¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 32¢, held +8.5ptspts
• Peak move: +8.5pts
• Held 94% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 32¢
• Graded from 57 snapshots