Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Wire activity, no reprice

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@nicktimiraos · 31 Jul 2026, 00:06 UTC

Asked Wednesday which inflation measure he relies on, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh gave "the proper, standard answer"—the PCE price index—then immediately qualified it: "Who knows come after next January what we might say about strategy. I suspect the task forces might have something to add." The comment drew attention from former Fed economists (as did his remarks during his Senate confirmation hearing about looking at trimmed averages). In a client note Wednesday, JPMorgan's Michael Feroli said the latest comments "seem to confirm suspicions that the task forces are just covers to redefine the inflation challenge away." This is what Warsh said 15 months earlier in a speech at the IMF: "[F]requent changes to the Fed's metrics—including its professed preferred measures of inflation—are beneath the high standing of the central bank. Central bank credibility is the coin that purchases American economic strength. In Washington, a central banker can ill-afford to be anything other than a straight-shooter."