QUIET WIRE FINALISED: FROZEN Polymarket

Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?

Window 01 Aug 2026, 15:35 UTC → 01 Aug 2026, 17:05 UTC

Price at window start n/a

Wire activity, no reprice

A linked post crossed the wire and this market did not move beyond its thresholds within the 90-minute window. Recorded for the archive; never delivered as an alert.

@FirstSquawk · 01 Aug 2026, 11:55 UTC

Russian Ministry of Defense: We have taken control of the towns of Lobytsooky in Zaporizhzhia and Olgofka in Kharkiv