REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
Window 01 Aug 2026, 03:52 UTC → 01 Aug 2026, 05:22 UTC
Price at window start 11¢ → at trigger 8¢ → at close 10¢
YES down · NO up
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 11¢ at window start → 10¢ at close
- BOOK Book 4.3:1 ask, $1.8k/$7.8k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.0k, 2.6× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 3,084 trades / 7d
- VOLUME $301.8k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
volume summed from the market's own trade tape
Book 4.3:1 ask, $1.8k/$7.8k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢
Triggers (2)
- 01 Aug 2026, 03:52 UTC: Sustained reprice: 11¢ → 8¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 31s
- 01 Aug 2026, 04:21 UTC: Sustained reprice: 8¢ → 11¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- 31 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 8¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 11¢, held +0.0ptspts
- Peak move: +3.0pts
- Held 17% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: yes
- Price at close: 10¢
- Graded from 65 snapshots