US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +13.0pts: 14¢ at window start → 28¢ at close
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 ask, $4.4k/$6.5k within 10¢
  depth from the 01:20 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $4.8k, 6.3× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 4,161 trades / 7d
• VOLUME $231.4k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
  volume summed from the market's own trade tape

DEPTH PENDING · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (3)

• 01 Aug 2026, 23:55 UTC: Sustained reprice: 14¢ → 26¢ (+11.0pts), confirmed over 133s
• 02 Aug 2026, 00:02 UTC: Sustained reprice: 26¢ → 22¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 189s
• 02 Aug 2026, 00:07 UTC: Sustained reprice: 22¢ → 27¢ (+5.0pts), confirmed over 60s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.23× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 110 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 22¢, drift -4.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 26¢, held +11.0ptspts
• Peak move: +13.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 28¢
• Graded from 56 snapshots