REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
Window 01 Aug 2026, 11:54 UTC → 01 Aug 2026, 13:24 UTC
Price at window start 7¢ → at trigger 10¢ → at close 10¢
YES up · NO down
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +3.0pts: 7¢ at window start → 10¢ at close
- BOOK Book 2.8:1 ask, $1.5k/$4.3k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $802, 1.0× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 3,348 trades / 7d
- VOLUME $255.0k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
volume summed from the market's own trade tape
Book 2.8:1 ask, $1.5k/$4.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (1)
- 01 Aug 2026, 11:54 UTC: Sustained reprice: 7¢ → 10¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 60s
Context
- 16 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 10¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 10¢, held +3.0ptspts
- Peak move: +3.0pts
- Held 100% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: no
- Price at close: 10¢
- Graded from 149 snapshots