US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +4.5pts: 13¢ at window start → 17¢ at close
• BOOK Book 2.1:1 ask, $2.7k/$5.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $11.7k, 15.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 3,851 trades / 7d
• VOLUME $257.3k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
  volume summed from the market's own trade tape

Book 2.1:1 ask, $2.7k/$5.5k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (5)

• 01 Aug 2026, 20:43 UTC: Sustained reprice: 13¢ → 10¢ (-2.5pts), confirmed over 142s
• 01 Aug 2026, 20:49 UTC: Band breach (lower): 10¢ → 9¢ (-1.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 01 Aug 2026, 21:39 UTC: Sustained reprice: 9¢ → 13¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 97s
• 01 Aug 2026, 21:46 UTC: Sustained reprice: 13¢ → 16¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 01 Aug 2026, 22:05 UTC: Sustained reprice: 16¢ → 21¢ (+5.0pts), confirmed over 69s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.05× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 179 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 11¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 10¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 17¢
• Graded from 78 snapshots