REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
Window 01 Aug 2026, 23:50 UTC → 02 Aug 2026, 01:20 UTC
Price at window start 33¢ → at trigger 40¢ → at close 42¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 31 Aug 2026, 23:59 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +8.5pts: 33¢ at window start → 42¢ at close
- BOOK Book 1.7:1 ask, $4.5k/$7.8k within 10¢
depth from the 01:19 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
- VOLUME $14.6k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
volume summed from the market's own trade tape
DEPTH PENDING · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (1)
- 01 Aug 2026, 23:50 UTC: Sustained reprice: 33¢ → 40¢ (+6.5pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.3× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 9 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 40¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 40¢, held +7.0ptspts
- Peak move: +9.0pts
- Held 94% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
- Gave back half within 60m: no
- Price at close: 42¢
- Graded from 58 snapshots