US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.5pts: 17¢ at window start → 13¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 18¢ (band 18¢–28¢)
  band basis: warming_up
• VOLUME 2.0× this market's 7-day norm, $52.9k in 24h
  volume from the 07:32 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• BOOK Book 1.8:1 bid, $5.4k/$2.9k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $10.0k, 14.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 518 trades / 7d

Book 1.8:1 bid, $5.4k/$2.9k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 01 Aug 2026, 06:08 UTC: Sustained reprice: 17¢ → 9¢ (-7.5pts), confirmed over 36s
• 01 Aug 2026, 06:27 UTC: Sustained reprice: 9¢ → 13¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 60s

Context

• 12 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 11¢, drift -1.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 13¢, held +3.5ptspts
• Peak move: +7.5pts
• Held 47% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 13¢
• Graded from 60 snapshots