Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +5.0pts: 34¢ at window start → 39¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 32¢ (band 29¢–32¢)
  band basis: insufficient_data
• VOLUME 6.3× this market's 7-day norm, $21.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.4:1 bid, $6.9k/$4.8k within 10¢

Book 1.4:1 bid, $6.9k/$4.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 01 Aug 2026, 01:46 UTC: Sustained reprice: 34¢ → 38¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 100s

Context

• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 37¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 39¢, held +5.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 39¢
• Graded from 79 snapshots