REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
Window 01 Aug 2026, 02:51 UTC → 01 Aug 2026, 04:21 UTC
Price at window start 40¢ → at trigger 34¢ → at close 30¢
YES down · NO up
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced -10.0pts: 40¢ at window start → 30¢ at close
- VOLUME 2.5× this market's 7-day norm, $57.8k in 24h
- BOOK Book 3.2:1 ask, $2.8k/$9.2k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $699, 3.5× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 674 trades / 7d
Book 3.2:1 ask, $2.8k/$9.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (2)
- 01 Aug 2026, 02:51 UTC: Sustained reprice: 40¢ → 34¢ (-5.5pts), confirmed over 77s
- 01 Aug 2026, 03:51 UTC: Sustained reprice: 34¢ → 30¢ (-4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- 19 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 35¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 32¢, held +7.5ptspts
- Peak move: +10.5pts
- Held 95% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
- Gave back half within 60m: no data
- Price at close: 30¢
- Graded from 88 snapshots