Israel closes its airspace by August 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -5.0pts: 41¢ at window start → 36¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 31¢ (band 25¢–31¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 3.3× this market's 7-day norm, $98.4k in 24h
  volume from the 23:15 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• BOOK Book 1.6:1 bid, $4.5k/$2.8k within 10¢

Book 1.6:1 bid, $4.5k/$2.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 01 Aug 2026, 21:48 UTC: Sustained reprice: 41¢ → 38¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.39× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 93 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 38¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 37¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 36¢
• Graded from 62 snapshots