Israel closes its airspace by August 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 38¢ at window start → 37¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 34¢ (band 23¢–34¢)
  band basis: warming_up
• VOLUME 3.7× this market's 7-day norm, $112.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 ask, $2.3k/$3.2k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $500, 1.5× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,175 trades / 7d

Book 1.3:1 ask, $2.3k/$3.2k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 01 Aug 2026, 19:06 UTC: Sustained reprice: 38¢ → 42¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 33s
• 01 Aug 2026, 19:43 UTC: Sustained reprice: 42¢ → 38¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• 38 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 42¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 39¢, held +1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 37¢
• Graded from 153 snapshots