REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
Window 01 Aug 2026, 02:05 UTC → 01 Aug 2026, 03:35 UTC
Price at window start 9¢ → at trigger 14¢ → at close 10¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 31 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 9¢ at window start → 10¢ at close
- BOOK Book 1.2:1 ask, $6.9k/$8.3k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $4.9k, 1.9× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 387 trades / 7d
- VOLUME $156.9k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
Book 1.2:1 ask, $6.9k/$8.3k within 10¢ · spread 3.0¢
Triggers (2)
- 01 Aug 2026, 02:05 UTC: Sustained reprice: 9¢ → 14¢ (+5.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 01 Aug 2026, 02:16 UTC: Sustained reprice: 14¢ → 11¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 292s
Context
- 35 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 14¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 10¢, held +1.0ptspts
- Peak move: +5.0pts
- Held 10% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: yes
- Price at close: 10¢
- Graded from 84 snapshots