Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +4.5pts: 63¢ at window start → 68¢ at close
• VOLUME 14.4× this market's 7-day norm, $8.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 4.4:1 bid, $9.8k/$2.2k within 10¢

Book 4.4:1 bid, $9.8k/$2.2k within 10¢ · spread 3.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 31 Jul 2026, 21:58 UTC: Sustained reprice: 63¢ → 68¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 31s

Context

• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 69¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 68¢, held +4.5ptspts
• Peak move: +5.5pts
• Held 82% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 68¢
• Graded from 65 snapshots