REPRICED FINALISED: FROZEN Polymarket

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Window 31 Jul 2026, 10:00 UTC → 31 Jul 2026, 11:30 UTC

Price at window start 55¢ → at trigger 59¢ → at close 57¢

YES up · NO down

Resolves 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC

Frozen payload

REPRICED Repriced +3.0pts: 55¢ at window start → 57¢ at close
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 55¢ (band 49¢–55¢)
band basis: warming_up
VOLUME 2.1× this market's 7-day norm, $14.9k in 24h
BOOK Book 1.7:1 bid, $18.5k/$10.7k within 10¢

Book 1.7:1 bid, $18.5k/$10.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

31 Jul 2026, 10:00 UTC: Sustained reprice: 55¢ → 59¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 56s

Context

8 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

+2m after alert: 59¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
+30m: 58¢, held +3.5ptspts
Peak move: +4.0pts
Held 75% of the peak move at close
Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
Gave back half within 60m: no
Price at close: 57¢
Graded from 97 snapshots