US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 9¢ at window start → 9¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 9¢ (band 9¢–28¢)
  band basis: warming_up
• BOOK Book 3.1:1 ask, $2.6k/$8.0k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $5.9k, 8.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 2,733 trades / 7d
• VOLUME $278.9k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
  volume summed from the market's own trade tape

Book 3.1:1 ask, $2.6k/$8.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 31 Jul 2026, 22:10 UTC: Sustained reprice: 9¢ → 12¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 54s
• 31 Jul 2026, 23:13 UTC: Sustained reprice: 12¢ → 9¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 32s

Context

• 137 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 10¢, drift -1.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 10¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 9¢
• Graded from 67 snapshots