REPRICED
WINDOW OPEN: LIVE
Polymarket
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
Window 31 Jul 2026, 10:40 UTC → 31 Jul 2026, 12:10 UTC
Price at window start 23¢ → at trigger 20¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 31 Jul 2026, 23:59 UTC
Live payload
- REPRICED Repriced -5.5pts: 23¢ at window start → 18¢ now
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 19¢ (band 19¢–28¢)
band basis: warming_up
- BOOK Book 3.1:1 ask, $2.7k/$8.4k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $5.0k, 7.6× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 1,895 trades / 7d
Triggers (1)
- 31 Jul 2026, 10:40 UTC: Sustained reprice: 23¢ → 20¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 60s