US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -5.0pts: 16¢ at window start → 11¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 19¢ (band 19¢–28¢)
  band basis: warming_up
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 ask, $5.8k/$7.4k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.2k, 3.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 2,264 trades / 7d
• VOLUME $215.9k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
  volume summed from the market's own trade tape

Book 1.3:1 ask, $5.8k/$7.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (4)

• 31 Jul 2026, 12:42 UTC: Sustained reprice: 16¢ → 13¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 91s
• 31 Jul 2026, 12:55 UTC: Sustained reprice: 13¢ → 18¢ (+5.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 31 Jul 2026, 13:40 UTC: Sustained reprice: 18¢ → 14¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 53s
• 31 Jul 2026, 13:52 UTC: Sustained reprice: 14¢ → 10¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 60s

Context

• 189 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 13¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 16¢, held +0.0ptspts
• Peak move: +6.0pts
• Held 83% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 11¢
• Graded from 94 snapshots