REPRICED
WINDOW OPEN: LIVE
Polymarket
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
Window 31 Jul 2026, 07:30 UTC → 31 Jul 2026, 09:00 UTC
Price at window start 26¢ → at trigger 19¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 31 Jul 2026, 23:59 UTC
Live payload
- REPRICED Repriced +1.5pts: 26¢ at window start → 27¢ now
- BOOK Book 2.9:1 ask, $7.0k/$20.3k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.6k, 2.5× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 1,681 trades / 7d
Triggers (3)
- 31 Jul 2026, 07:30 UTC: Sustained reprice: 26¢ → 19¢ (-7.0pts), confirmed over 31s
- 31 Jul 2026, 07:40 UTC: Sustained reprice: 19¢ → 23¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 267s
- 31 Jul 2026, 07:49 UTC: Sustained reprice: 23¢ → 27¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 94s