REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
Window 31 Jul 2026, 08:47 UTC → 31 Jul 2026, 10:17 UTC
Price at window start 38¢ → at trigger 41¢ → at close 43¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 31 Aug 2026, 23:59 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +5.5pts: 38¢ at window start → 43¢ at close
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 38¢ (band 31¢–38¢)
band basis: warming_up
- BOOK Book 1.5:1 bid, $8.5k/$5.7k within 10¢
- TIMING First reprice T+851m
- WIRE Wire: @financialjuice T−851m, link confidence 75%: "US Treasury Secretary Bessent: USTR Greer and I spoke with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng"
- VOLUME $10.6k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
volume summed from the market's own trade tape
Book 1.5:1 bid, $8.5k/$5.7k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢
Triggers (1)
- 31 Jul 2026, 08:47 UTC: Sustained reprice: 38¢ → 41¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 271s
Context
- 6 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 41¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 44¢, held +6.0ptspts
- Peak move: +6.0pts
- Held 92% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
- Gave back half within 60m: no
- Price at close: 43¢
- Graded from 83 snapshots